The return of Donald Trump to the White House has stirred concerns that the global push for clean energy may face significant setbacks. Trump’s promise to “drill, baby, drill,” roll back environmental regulations, and dismantle the “green new scam” has left many wondering whether the shift away from fossil fuels will slow down. With rising global temperatures—January marked the warmest on record—and continued decarbonization struggles, the fear is real. However, despite Trump’s past efforts, it’s becoming clear that the green transition is beyond the reach of politics.
During his first term, Trump couldn’t halt the clean energy revolution, and there’s no reason to think he will this time either. The truth is simple: technological innovations, steep learning curves, and dropping costs have made renewable energy more affordable than fossil fuels in many places. In 2017, the green transition was just taking off, but now it has reached a point of unstoppable momentum. It’s not government policies driving this shift—it’s market forces. The fact that Texas, traditionally a conservative stronghold, is now leading the nation in renewable energy is a clear indicator that politics can no longer slow down America’s energy shift.
That being said, politics will still play a role in slowing down the transition. The Trump administration is already working to loosen climate regulations, boost domestic oil and gas production, and support the future of gas-fired power plants. His executive orders are aiming to open up more federal lands for oil and gas leasing, reverse Biden’s suspension of new LNG terminal approvals, and halt new wind projects on federal land. With the backing of a Republican-controlled Congress, Trump is looking to roll back a significant portion of the Inflation Reduction Act, including support for electric vehicles (EVs), offshore wind, and clean energy tax credits.
However, no matter what happens in Washington, the momentum of the US energy transition will continue. Despite Trump’s claims of a “national energy emergency,” the US has been a net exporter of energy since 2019, and oil production has reached record highs. Yet, with low prices and high output, fossil fuel production isn’t likely to increase much further in the short term. Clean energy, particularly solar power, will continue to grow as energy demand rises and costs fall. Electric utilities will keep pushing forward with renewable projects to meet rising demand and ensure grid reliability, even as new gas-fired plants are built. Even without Trump’s EV incentives, automakers will stick to their long-term plans, and states with Democratic leadership will continue to implement ambitious decarbonization policies.
Even with efforts to roll back parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, key measures will likely remain in place due to strong support from Republican constituencies who’ve benefited from the job creation and investments it has fostered. Next-generation clean energy technologies, like nuclear, geothermal, and carbon capture and storage, will continue to receive backing as well.
On a global scale, America’s withdrawal from climate leadership will have its consequences, but it won’t bring the energy transition to a halt. Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement once again and cut funding to climate finance programs will slow the flow of funds to developing nations and dampen enthusiasm for bold climate actions in countries like Argentina and Indonesia. Still, the global energy transition is moving forward.
Other industrialized nations, like those in Europe, remain committed to the Paris Agreement. They see decarbonization as a way to reduce dependence on imports and improve energy security. India, the world’s fastest-growing emitter, is embracing clean energy not only as an economic opportunity but also as a critical step to combat its severe air pollution. Emerging markets are increasingly keen to speed up their renewable energy adoption for economic reasons, especially as prices for solar and wind continue to drop.
Most importantly, China—the largest emitter of carbon emissions—has already reached its emissions peak five years ahead of its 2030 goal. China’s dominance in solar panels, EVs, and batteries ensures that it will continue to push forward with its clean energy agenda, regardless of changes in US policy. In fact, China may see the Trump administration’s stance as an opportunity to capture more of the global market, driving further price reductions and accelerating the worldwide adoption of clean energy technologies.
Even as the US potentially lags behind, the global shift to renewable energy is unstoppable. The ongoing decline in renewable energy costs will encourage more emerging economies to turn to clean, domestic sources like solar and wind, instead of relying on costly, volatile fossil fuel imports. The green transition is here to stay—whether or not Washington gets on board.
Last modified: February 27, 2025
